The Next 50 Years: Fatal Discontinuities
Identifieur interne : 001605 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001604; suivant : 001606The Next 50 Years: Fatal Discontinuities
Auteurs : Vaclav Smil [Canada]Source :
- Population and Development Review [ 0098-7921 ] ; 2005-06.
English descriptors
- Teeft :
- Annual epidemics, Annual risk, Asteroid, Asteroid impacts, Avian influenza, Avian influenza viruses, Avian viruses, Biophysical realities, Canary islands, Canary islands landslides, Casualty, Change history, Columbia university press, Communication links, Complex terrorism, Conflict database, Cuban missile crisis, Deadly quarrels, Death toll, Death tolls, Development review, Discontinuity, Disease control, Eastern coast, Economic damage, Eruption, Eventual impact, Existential risks, Fatal discontinuities, Fatal discontinuities figure, Fatality, First time, Fourth wave, Global, Good news, Great tangshan earthquake, High probability, Hiroshima bomb, Hong kong, Hong xiuquan, Human evolution, Impact energy, Indian ocean tsunami, Infectious diseases, Influenza, Influenza pandemic, Influenza pandemics, Influenza virus, International institute, International peace research institute, Landslide, Large number, Latin america, Liberal democracy, Likely frequency, Many steps, Mass disruption, Massive collapse, Modern history, Mortality, Muslim history, Natural catastrophes, Next half century, Next influenza pandemic, Next pandemic, Nuclear weapons, October, Other hand, Other organisms, Oxford university press, Pandemic, Pandemic influenza, Past generation, Percent chance, Plant productivity, Princeton university press, Recurrence, Recurrence interval, Relative risks, Same time, Scenario, Scientific american library, Second wave, Similar object, Small asteroids, Smil, Soviet union, Specific point forecasts, Strategic studies, Subtype, Such developments, Terrorism, Terrorist, Terrorist actions, Terrorist attack, Terrorist attacks, Total number, Total warheads, Transformational, Transformational wars, Twentieth century, Unpredictable discontinuities, Vaclav, Vaclav smil, Vaclav smil figure, Violent conflicts, Viral pneumonia, Volcanic, Volcanic winter, World health organization, World history, World population prospects, Worldwide, Yellowstone hotspot.
Abstract
Modern civilization is subject to gradual environmental, social, economic, and political transformations as well as to sudden changes that can fundamentally alter its prospects. This article examines a key set of such fatal discontinuities by quantifying the likelihood of three classes of sudden, and potentially catastrophic, events—natural disasters (the Earth's collision with nearby asteroids, massive volcanic eruptions and mega‐tsunami generated by these events, as well as by huge landslides); viral pandemics; and transformational wars—and by comparing their likelihood with other involuntary risks (including terrorism) and voluntary actions and exposures.
Url:
DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00063.x
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream Istex, to step Corpus: 001779
- to stream Istex, to step Curation: 001779
- to stream Istex, to step Checkpoint: 000507
- to stream Main, to step Merge: 001633
- to stream Main, to step Curation: 001605
Le document en format XML
<record><TEI wicri:istexFullTextTei="biblStruct"><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">The Next 50 Years: Fatal Discontinuities</title><author><name sortKey="Smil, Vaclav" sort="Smil, Vaclav" uniqKey="Smil V" first="Vaclav" last="Smil">Vaclav Smil</name></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">ISTEX</idno><idno type="RBID">ISTEX:CB0AA79768166DCC0F7F1AAD34B1DC402A73B01A</idno><date when="2005" year="2005">2005</date><idno type="doi">10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00063.x</idno><idno type="url">https://api.istex.fr/ark:/67375/WNG-9VCS4D0V-Q/fulltext.pdf</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Corpus">001779</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Istex" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="ISTEX">001779</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Curation">001779</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Istex/Checkpoint">000507</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Istex" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000507</idno><idno type="wicri:doubleKey">0098-7921:2005:Smil V:the:next:years</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">001633</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">001605</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">001605</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title level="a" type="main">The Next 50 Years: Fatal Discontinuities</title><author><name sortKey="Smil, Vaclav" sort="Smil, Vaclav" uniqKey="Smil V" first="Vaclav" last="Smil">Vaclav Smil</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><country>Canada</country><wicri:regionArea>Distinguished Professor, Department of Geography, University of Manitoba, Isbister Building 212, 66 Chancellor Circle, Winnipeg, Manitoba</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université du Manitoba</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Winnipeg</settlement><region type="state">Manitoba</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><monogr></monogr><series><title level="j" type="main">Population and Development Review</title><title level="j" type="alt">POPULATION DEVELOPMENT REVIEW</title><idno type="ISSN">0098-7921</idno><idno type="eISSN">1728-4457</idno><imprint><biblScope unit="vol">31</biblScope><biblScope unit="issue">2</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" from="201">201</biblScope><biblScope unit="page" to="236">236</biblScope><biblScope unit="page-count">36</biblScope><publisher>Blackwell Publishing Ltd</publisher><pubPlace>Oxford, UK</pubPlace><date type="published" when="2005-06">2005-06</date></imprint><idno type="ISSN">0098-7921</idno></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc><seriesStmt><idno type="ISSN">0098-7921</idno></seriesStmt></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass><keywords scheme="Teeft" xml:lang="en"><term>Annual epidemics</term><term>Annual risk</term><term>Asteroid</term><term>Asteroid impacts</term><term>Avian influenza</term><term>Avian influenza viruses</term><term>Avian viruses</term><term>Biophysical realities</term><term>Canary islands</term><term>Canary islands landslides</term><term>Casualty</term><term>Change history</term><term>Columbia university press</term><term>Communication links</term><term>Complex terrorism</term><term>Conflict database</term><term>Cuban missile crisis</term><term>Deadly quarrels</term><term>Death toll</term><term>Death tolls</term><term>Development review</term><term>Discontinuity</term><term>Disease control</term><term>Eastern coast</term><term>Economic damage</term><term>Eruption</term><term>Eventual impact</term><term>Existential risks</term><term>Fatal discontinuities</term><term>Fatal discontinuities figure</term><term>Fatality</term><term>First time</term><term>Fourth wave</term><term>Global</term><term>Good news</term><term>Great tangshan earthquake</term><term>High probability</term><term>Hiroshima bomb</term><term>Hong kong</term><term>Hong xiuquan</term><term>Human evolution</term><term>Impact energy</term><term>Indian ocean tsunami</term><term>Infectious diseases</term><term>Influenza</term><term>Influenza pandemic</term><term>Influenza pandemics</term><term>Influenza virus</term><term>International institute</term><term>International peace research institute</term><term>Landslide</term><term>Large number</term><term>Latin america</term><term>Liberal democracy</term><term>Likely frequency</term><term>Many steps</term><term>Mass disruption</term><term>Massive collapse</term><term>Modern history</term><term>Mortality</term><term>Muslim history</term><term>Natural catastrophes</term><term>Next half century</term><term>Next influenza pandemic</term><term>Next pandemic</term><term>Nuclear weapons</term><term>October</term><term>Other hand</term><term>Other organisms</term><term>Oxford university press</term><term>Pandemic</term><term>Pandemic influenza</term><term>Past generation</term><term>Percent chance</term><term>Plant productivity</term><term>Princeton university press</term><term>Recurrence</term><term>Recurrence interval</term><term>Relative risks</term><term>Same time</term><term>Scenario</term><term>Scientific american library</term><term>Second wave</term><term>Similar object</term><term>Small asteroids</term><term>Smil</term><term>Soviet union</term><term>Specific point forecasts</term><term>Strategic studies</term><term>Subtype</term><term>Such developments</term><term>Terrorism</term><term>Terrorist</term><term>Terrorist actions</term><term>Terrorist attack</term><term>Terrorist attacks</term><term>Total number</term><term>Total warheads</term><term>Transformational</term><term>Transformational wars</term><term>Twentieth century</term><term>Unpredictable discontinuities</term><term>Vaclav</term><term>Vaclav smil</term><term>Vaclav smil figure</term><term>Violent conflicts</term><term>Viral pneumonia</term><term>Volcanic</term><term>Volcanic winter</term><term>World health organization</term><term>World history</term><term>World population prospects</term><term>Worldwide</term><term>Yellowstone hotspot</term></keywords></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Modern civilization is subject to gradual environmental, social, economic, and political transformations as well as to sudden changes that can fundamentally alter its prospects. This article examines a key set of such fatal discontinuities by quantifying the likelihood of three classes of sudden, and potentially catastrophic, events—natural disasters (the Earth's collision with nearby asteroids, massive volcanic eruptions and mega‐tsunami generated by these events, as well as by huge landslides); viral pandemics; and transformational wars—and by comparing their likelihood with other involuntary risks (including terrorism) and voluntary actions and exposures.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Canada</li></country><region><li>Manitoba</li></region><settlement><li>Winnipeg</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université du Manitoba</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="Canada"><region name="Manitoba"><name sortKey="Smil, Vaclav" sort="Smil, Vaclav" uniqKey="Smil V" first="Vaclav" last="Smil">Vaclav Smil</name></region></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/H2N2V1/Data/Main/Exploration
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 001605 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd -nk 001605 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Sante
|area= H2N2V1
|flux= Main
|étape= Exploration
|type= RBID
|clé= ISTEX:CB0AA79768166DCC0F7F1AAD34B1DC402A73B01A
|texte= The Next 50 Years: Fatal Discontinuities
}}
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |  |